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The real estate market is now undergoing positive changes, with multiple indicators picking up month

Date: 2022-06-17
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There have been some positive changes in the real estate market. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, in the first five months of this year, the cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment, new construction, sales area and sales, and the funds in place of housing enterprises still declined year-on-year, and the decline has expanded. However, from May alone, all indicators have rebounded month on month, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed slightly. The industry believes that a package of bail-out policies has begun to take effect and the downward trend of the property market has begun to slow down. Since June, the local policy support has been strengthened. It is expected that the policy effects at both ends of supply and demand will continue to be released in the later period, and the bottoming trend of the property market will be more obvious in June.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the national investment in real estate development was 5,213.4 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year; The newly started housing area is 516.28 million square meters, down 30.6% year-on-year; The sales area of commercial housing is 507.38 million square meters, down by 23.6% year-on-year; Sales of commercial housing amounted to 4,833.7 billion yuan, down 31.5% year-on-year; The funds of real estate development enterprises reached 6,040.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%.

Li Yujia, chief research institute of Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Planning Institute, believes that new construction and land purchase continue to drag down development investment, and the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to purchase land is very low. From January to May, the year-on-year decline of real estate development investment was 1.3 percentage points higher than that from January to April. The decline in sales area of commercial housing continues to expand, and the decline in sales of commercial housing is greater than that of sales area, indicating that developers continue to cut prices and promote sales. The decline of the developers' funds in place continues to expand, among which the banks' worries about risks are still obvious, and the year-on-year decline of domestic loans has expanded; The year-on-year decline of deposits and advance receipts and mortgage loans expanded, indicating that residents' enthusiasm for buying houses was low.

It is worth noting that, although the multi-indicators of real estate in the first five months still dropped sharply year-on-year, from the single month of May, the multi-indicators all showed a month-on-month rebound.

According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, in May, the investment in real estate development rose by 14% from the previous month, the newly started area rose by 20.1% from the previous month, and the land purchase area increased by 45.9% from the previous month. The sales area of commercial housing in China increased by 25.8% from the previous month, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 29.7% from the previous month. Funds in place for housing enterprises increased by 14.7% from the previous month.

'In May, the indicators in a single month have shown encouraging signs of a month-on-month increase.' Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that this shows that under the framework of stabilizing the economic market, there have been some new signs in the real estate market, especially a series of financial policies, which have made the development and investment data of housing enterprises begin to face a turning point. At present, the land market is also trying to get out of the low point. With the stimulation of this round of housing sales market and the optimization of the business environment in the land purchase market, the land market may recover slightly. Subsequent improvements in housing sales data, bank loans and bond issuance data all contribute to the further improvement of housing enterprises' funds.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, also pointed out that the marginal improvement of new home sales showed the first month-on-month growth in May.

For the reasons of marginal improvement of new house sales, Xu Xiaole believes that, first, a series of policy loosening has improved market expectations; Second, the central bank cut interest rates in excess of expectations, and some cities canceled the mortgage recognition, which effectively reduced the purchase cost; Third, the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy has lowered the entry threshold and brought more housing demand; Fourth, after the relaxation of the sales restriction policy, the centralized entry of second-time new houses into the market can enhance the market improvement power, and the demand for changing houses will enter the new house market.

'In addition to the benefits brought by sales payment, the improvement of the financing environment of housing enterprises has also brought positive effects to housing enterprises.' Xu Xiaole said that since June, local policy support has been strengthened, and policies such as financing support for housing enterprises and risk relief have been further implemented. It is expected that the policy effects at both ends of supply and demand will continue to be released in the later period, which will continue to benefit market sales and investment. In June, sales and investment in a single month are expected to continue to improve from the previous month.

Li Yujia also pointed out that the whole chain of real estate continued to decline year on year in a single month, mainly related to the high base in the same period last year, but the decline narrowed obviously, indicating that a package of bail-out policies began to take effect and the downward trend of the property market began to slow down. With the significant reduction of the 5-year LPR and the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate in May, it is expected that the improvement on the sales side will be more obvious in June. At the same time, the supply side will speed up the disposal of the risks of housing enterprises, restore corporate credit and reasonable financing, speed up mergers and acquisitions, and the expectation of worrying about the delivery of new houses will improve. Under the background of both supply and demand, it is expected that the bottoming trend of the property market will be more obvious in June.

Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said that recently, all localities are stepping up the implementation of policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market, and taking various measures to effectively meet residents' reasonable housing needs. In addition, the reduction of the medium-and long-term loan interest rate of real estate and the reduction of residents' burden of buying houses are all conducive to the stabilization of the real estate market. According to the recent investigation, there have been some positive changes in the real estate market.


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