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Promoting intensive consumption policy, automobile sales are expected to bottom out

Date: 2022-05-30
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A few days ago, the State Council executive meeting proposed to relax the purchase restriction of automobiles and reduce the purchase tax of some passenger cars by 60 billion yuan in stages. At the same time, more than 100 million yuan of automobile vouchers have been issued recently to stimulate automobile consumption. In addition, car companies are stepping up the introduction of new models to enhance product strength. BYD has issued two new cars in a week, and Xpeng Motors G9 and LI L9 will be released soon.

According to industry insiders, the automobile industry chain is long and has a big pulling effect, which is expected to become an important starting point for stabilizing the economy. With the help of multiple policies, in 2022, car companies will start brand and intelligent competition, and release greater automobile consumption potential.

Multiple policy stimulus

A few days ago, the State Council executive meeting proposed to relax the purchase restriction of automobiles and reduce the purchase tax of some passenger cars by 60 billion yuan in stages. At the same time, the truck loan support bank will postpone the repayment of principal and interest during the year, and the 90 billion yuan truck loan issued by the automobile central enterprises will require the bank-enterprise linkage to postpone the repayment of principal and interest for half a year. According to industry insiders, the introduction of this policy has played a role in boosting confidence of the entire automobile industry.

'Automobile consumption accounts for a very large proportion in the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the decline in automobile consumption growth will affect the consumption growth of the whole society. The purchase restriction directly affects the purchasing power release of new car buyers, so it is necessary to relax the purchase restriction to stimulate consumption. ' Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, said.

On May 7th, Beijing Municipal People's Government's website published 'Beijing's Traffic Development and Construction Plan during the 14th Five-Year Plan', which proposed to gradually increase the proportion of new energy indicators, give priority to allocating minibus indicators to car-free families, strengthen the management of 'multiple cars under one person's name', and promote the orderly exit of the second or more minibuses registered in the city under one person's name.

Many institutions expect that the stimulus of reducing purchase tax will focus on low-end fuel vehicles with strong incremental effect. China Merchants Securities said that the policy cost of stimulating low-end cars is lower than that of high-end cars, and the elasticity of sales volume is greater. Take a car with a price of 100,000 yuan as an example. The purchase tax is 8,800 yuan, and a tax reduction subsidy of 5,000 yuan is given to each car. The cost of car purchase is reduced by 5%. With this subsidy level, the purchase tax of 60 billion yuan can cover the sales of 12 million cars, which is equivalent to nearly half of the annual sales of passenger cars in China, and the stimulating effect is remarkable.

In addition, more car coupons have been issued recently to stimulate consumption. According to the incomplete statistics of china securities journal reporters, in the first five months of this year, 15 provinces and cities across the country issued automobile consumption support policies, covering Guangdong, Shandong, Hubei, Hainan, Jilin and other regions, with subsidies totaling hundreds of millions of yuan.

For example, in Hubei Province, the subsidy for scrapping old cars and purchasing new energy vehicles is 8,000 yuan/vehicle, and the subsidy for purchasing fuel vehicles is 3,000 yuan/vehicle; The subsidy for transferring out old cars and buying new energy vehicles is 5,000 yuan/vehicle, and the subsidy for buying fuel vehicles is 2,000 yuan/vehicle. From May 22 to June 30 in Shandong Province, individual consumers who purchase new energy passenger cars in the province and license them will be given coupons of 3,000-6,000 yuan per car according to the purchase amount; For individual consumers who purchase fuel passenger cars and license them, coupons of 2000 -5000 yuan per car will be issued according to the purchase amount.

With the help of a series of policies, the sales data of domestic auto market has improved since May. According to the latest statistics of the Federation, from May 1st to 15th, there were 484,000 retail cars in the national passenger car market, down 21% year-on-year and up 27% month-on-month; There were 458,000 wholesale passenger car manufacturers across the country, down 24% year-on-year and up 29% quarter-on-quarter.

The consumption effect is obvious.

In recent years, China's automobile market has experienced two large-scale preferential policies of purchase tax. In this round of preferential purchase tax in 2009, the State Council executive meeting proposed that from January 20th to December 31st, 2009, the vehicle purchase tax should be reduced by 5% for passenger cars with the displacement of 1.6 liters or less. In December 2009, the executive meeting of the State Council studied and improved some policies and measures to promote consumption, and extended the policy of reducing the purchase tax of small-displacement passenger cars of 1.6 liters or less to the end of 2010, with a reduction of 7.5%. The standard of bicycle subsidy for car trade-in is raised to 5,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan.

In this round of purchase tax reduction in 2014, the State Council executive meeting announced the decision to exempt qualified new energy vehicles from vehicle purchase tax. In September 2015, the State Council executive meeting once again introduced measures to support the development of new energy and small-displacement vehicles. From October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016, the preferential policy of collecting vehicle purchase tax by half was implemented for the purchase of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less; Accelerate the elimination of yellow label vehicles.

The introduction of policies has played a significant pulling effect on consumption. Industrial Securities said that after the introduction of the policy, the sales volume of the automobile industry turned positive rapidly year-on-year and continued to grow at a high rate. Under the policy of 5% reduction of purchase tax of 1.6L and below, the wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 52.9% in 2009; Under the policy of 7.5% reduction of purchase tax of 1.6L and below, the wholesale volume of passenger cars in 2010 increased by 33.2% year-on-year. By 2016, the wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 15.3% year-on-year. In 2017, the wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 1.4% year-on-year.

Industrial Securities believes that if the purchase tax of fuel vehicles below 1.6L is exempted in the second half of 2022, it is estimated that the sales of fuel passenger cars will reach about 17.26 million in 2022; The total sales volume of passenger cars in the whole year will reach 22.36 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%.

China Merchants Securities said that the automobile industry chain is long and its pulling effect is big, which is an important starting point for stabilizing the economy. It is expected that the target of tax reduction policy will be total-oriented, and the total stimulus effect will be preferred. Therefore, independent brands with a high proportion of low-end traditional car sales will benefit the most.

Vigorously improve product strength

Enterprises take advantage of the situation to accelerate the improvement of product strength and seize the market. According to the incomplete statistics of china securities journal reporters, in 2022, domestic car companies will launch dozens of new models.

In the first half of this year, when the supply chain of the whole industry was under pressure, BYD not only sold more than 100,000 vehicles in March and April, but also intensively released two new cars within a week. On May 20th, BYD released CTB battery body integration technology and the first E-platform 3.0 model equipped with CTB technology-SEAL. The pre-sale price of the new model SEAL is 212,800-289,800 yuan. On May 16th, Tengshi Brand, a joint venture between BYD and Mercedes-Benz, released Tengshi D9 model and entered the medium and large high-end new energy MPV market.

'Great Wall Motor will intensively launch a number of brands and new cars in the second half of 2022.' Insiders of Great Wall Motor revealed to china securities journal that 'brand promotion is an important strategy of Great Wall Motor. In the near future, the company will continuously improve product performance through brand upgrade, and provide customers with better products and services. '

It is understood that in terms of Euler brand, Ballet Cat is expected to be listed in mid-June, enriching the product matrix of Great Wall Motor in the field of pure electricity; In terms of WEY brand, Moka DHT-PHEV equipped with lemon hybrid DHT has been listed in March, positioning the high-end new energy vehicle market; In terms of brand, the tank 500, which locates medium and large commercial luxury off-road, has been delivered; As for the Great Wall pickup truck, the fashion commercial pickup truck King Kong Gun went on the market in March.

The new car-making forces have also made great efforts in terms of new models. In 2022, Weilai will successively deliver three new models based on NT2.0 technology platform. Among them, Weilai ET7 was delivered on March 28th; ET5 is expected to start delivery in September 2022; Another medium and large SUV ES7 will also be released and delivered this year. Xpeng Motors's new model G9 is planned to be launched in the third quarter of 2022 and delivered on a large scale in the fourth quarter. In addition, Xpeng Motors plans to launch a new car in Class B and Class C markets in 2023, and the existing models will cover the price range of 150,000 yuan to 400,000 yuan. LI's new SUV L9 will also be delivered in the third quarter of this year, with a price ranging from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan according to different configurations.

Ping An Securities said that in 2022, car companies will start brand and intelligent competition, and the new force of head-to-head car-making will enter a critical growth stage. High-end new energy products of many car companies will be launched one after another, and equipped with high-power chips. Heavy intelligent new cars and high-level assisted driving functions will usher in market tests. As far as new forces are concerned, they need to make up for their shortcomings as soon as possible while maintaining their existing advantages.

 


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