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The loosening of the "four limits" of the property market accelerates the market is expected to stab

Date: 2022-04-14
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April 12th, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, April 11th, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, April 1st, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, March 30th, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, March 23rd, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province In just one month, many provincial capitals and new first-tier cities have joined the ranks of property market deregulation. Since the beginning of this year, more than 60 cities have issued property market easing policies, ranging from the loosening of the 'four limits' policies of purchase restriction, sale restriction, loan restriction and price limit to the relaxation of settlement policies and the granting of housing subsidies. Under the tone of 'living and not speculating', the property market regulates one city and one policy, and the orientation of city policy is deepened.

Multiple cities are deregulated

From single policy to comprehensive policy, from third-and fourth-tier cities to provincial capitals represented by Nanjing, Lanzhou, Fuzhou and Harbin, as well as new first-tier cities such as Suzhou and Qingdao, the real estate policies in various places have been loosened recently, and the regulation of the property market is entering a new stage.

On April 12th, the reporter of China Consumer News learned from the Real Estate Trading Center of Liuhe District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province that non-Nanjing residents can issue a house purchase certificate in Liuhe District only by providing relevant identity documents. Prior to this, Lishui, Nanjing has also adjusted the purchase policy. Foreigners can directly issue the first suite purchase certificate with their ID cards, without social security or tax certificate, which is equivalent to liberalizing the local purchase restriction policy.

Following the drastic reduction of mortgage interest rate, Suzhou has made new moves in the property market regulation policy. On April 11th, the information released by Suzhou Real Estate Market and Transaction Management Center showed that Suzhou's restrictions on sales and purchases had been loosened. In terms of restricted sales, the time limit for second-hand houses was changed from 5 years to 3 years; In terms of purchase restriction, non-Suzhou registered permanent residence purchases have been changed from 24 consecutive months paid by social security in 3 years to 24 cumulative months. At the same time, foreigners can purchase houses directly without social security or tax bill within 2 years after selling houses.

Quzhou, Zhejiang can be said to be the first city in China to fully liberalize the property market's restrictions on sales and purchases. On April 2nd, Quzhou, Zhejiang clearly stated that 'non-registered households, individual industrial and commercial households and enterprises invested or controlled by natural persons shall be regarded as registered households in this city to implement the relevant house purchase policies'. At the same time, unless there is a special agreement in the land transfer announcement, there is no restriction on the sale of newly-built commercial housing in newly-sold plots in urban areas, and newly-built commercial housing of 144 square meters or more that has not been signed online in the sold plots.

On the same day, Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province also announced the official abolition of the purchase restriction since April 15, 2017. The previous regulations restrict the purchase of one set of housing for local households that already own one set of housing and non-local households that can provide the tax payment certificate or social insurance payment certificate of the city for 12 consecutive months within one year; For local households with two or more houses, non-local households with one or more houses, and non-local households unable to provide tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates for 12 consecutive months in a year, the sale of houses in this city will be suspended.

On April 1st, Lanzhou lowered the threshold of house purchase in terms of loan policy. The minimum down payment ratio for individuals to purchase the first house is not less than 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second house is not less than 30%. For families who own a house and have settled their house purchase loans, if they apply for loans to buy houses again in order to improve their living conditions, financial institutions will implement the first home loan policy. Individual provident fund loans are used to purchase housing. The maximum amount of provident fund loans is 600,000 yuan for single employees and 700,000 yuan for double employees.

On March 30th, Fuzhou announced that the purchase restriction policy had been liberalized to a certain extent. At present, non-five-city household registration families (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) who buy houses in Fuzhou five-city can buy an ordinary house of less than 144 square meters in Fuzhou five-city without providing medical social security or tax payment certificates or settling down in the past two years.

On March 23rd, Harbin abolished the Notice of the General Office of Harbin Municipal People's Government on Further Strengthening the Regulation and Control of the Real Estate Market (No.12 [2018] of Harbin Zhengban). The notice of abolition includes three years before the commercial housing in the main city can be listed and traded, improving the conditions of provident fund loans, strictly controlling the down payment and interest rate standards for more than two houses, etc.

The market adjustment period is the main reason

The reason why the property market regulation policy is gradually relaxed is mainly related to the current adjustment period of the real estate market.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research of Index Division of China Index Research Institute, told China Consumer News that since 2022, the central government has repeatedly stressed the support for the release of reasonable housing demand, and local governments have implemented policies for cities, and the optimization and adjustment of policies at both ends of supply and demand have been strengthened. At present, many real estate markets are still in the adjustment stage. According to the data of the China Research Institute, the transaction volume of new houses in Dalian, Liaoning Province has remained low this year, and the short-term inventory clearing cycle is more than 20 months, so the pressure of inventory de-stocking is high. According to the 100-city price index of China's real estate index system, Dalian's house prices are still in a fluctuating period; The price of new houses in Qinhuangdao fell for five consecutive months year-on-year, and the price of second-hand houses fell for eleven consecutive months year-on-year.

Liang Nan, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, told the reporter of China Consumer News that as the first city in China where the restrictions on sales and purchases were cancelled at the same time, this move in Quzhou has great signal significance, and the introduction of the policy is closely related to the local market environment. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, in March, 2022, only 241 sets of new commercial houses were sold in Quzhou, down 11.07% from the previous month, far less than the same period last year, down 80.20% year-on-year, and the market transaction performance was relatively weak.

Compared with the previous adjustment based on third-and fourth-tier cities, this deregulation involves many provincial capitals and new first-tier cities, and its influence is more extensive. 'The relaxation of the provincial capital city policy will objectively have a positive impact on the real estate market in the province where it is located, which has a benchmarking effect.' Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told China Consumer News that 'the housing demand in second-tier cities is more vigorous, especially the release of improved demand will have a positive pulling effect on the market.'

Zhang Huadong, chief researcher of Yihan Think Tank, also believes that in the future, more second-tier cities may gradually open their policy toolboxes and introduce substantive easing policies. Under the general tone of 'living and not speculating', controlling the first line, pulling the second line and stabilizing the third and fourth lines will be the new features of this round of property market regulation.

The market is expected to stabilize in the second quarter

The policy of loosening the property market has been released one after another. Can it play a substantial role in promoting the market? From the past cities, the relaxation of policies has brought some warmth to the property market.

Take Zhengzhou, Henan Province, which has received much attention, as an example. According to RealData data, after the introduction of Zhengzhou's '19 Articles' on March 2nd, the market transactions rebounded significantly. In March, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Zhengzhou was more than twice that of February, and the weekly average volume increased by 52% from the previous month, and the weekly average transaction volume increased by 95% from the previous month. In terms of new houses, there is still a certain wait-and-see mood after the policy adjustment. In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of RealData, told the reporter of China Consumer News: 'Many factors, such as the risks of housing enterprises, capital circulation, interest rate differences, etc., all make the recovery of the new housing market lag behind the performance of the second-hand market, and the market repair is still expected.'

Regarding the market trend in the second quarter, Yan Yuejin made an optimistic prediction: 'Under the favorable conditions of some important policies at present, such as the gradual relaxation of the' four limits' and the strong credit policy, the real estate market may see a decline narrowing or turning positive.'

Chen Wenjing also believes that since the second half of last year, the property market has been expected to be weak as a whole, and the overlapping epidemic situation repeatedly led to the continued sluggish market in the first quarter. However, the subsequent backlog of demand is expected to be gradually released after the policy is relaxed, and the market will stabilize in the second quarter.

Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, said that the current real estate market is still in the process of bottoming out, and the market recovery is expected. The bottom of the market may appear in the second quarter, when first-tier cities and strong second-and third-tier cities will take the lead in stabilizing.

 


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