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In 2021, China's GDP exceeded 110 trillion yuan

Date: 2022-01-19
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According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on the 17th, according to preliminary accounting, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 was 114367 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year and an average increase of 5.1% in two years at constant prices. China's GDP exceeded 110 trillion yuan for the first time, exceeding 100 trillion yuan for two consecutive years.

Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of statistics, said at a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council on the same day that in 2021, the national economy will continue to recover and develop, reform, opening up and innovation will be further promoted, people's livelihood will be effectively guaranteed, new steps will be taken to build a new development pattern, new achievements will be made in high-quality development, and a good start will be achieved in the 14th five year plan. In 2021, China has exceeded the world per capita GDP level. It is preliminarily estimated that the world's per capita GDP in 2021 will be about US $12100 and that of China will be US $12500.

Looking forward to the economy in 2022, Ning Jizhe said that the trend of China's sustained economic recovery and development has not changed, the factors to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range and the conditions to support high-quality development have not changed. Throughout the year, the economy is expected to make progress while maintaining stability.

Driven by domestic demand, economic growth has sufficient momentum

In 2021, the national economy will continue to recover and the main expected objectives will be fully realized.

One year's achievements are hard won. Where does the driving force of economic growth come from? Ning Jizhe said that the kinetic energy of economic growth can be measured from the supply side, that is, the three industries; It can also be measured from the demand side, that is, the 'troika'.

Look at the support through the data. In 2021, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods exceeded 40 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year; The scale of investment in fixed assets exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%. The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 79.1%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points over the previous year. 'Economic growth is mainly driven by domestic demand.' Ning Jizhe said.

Ning Jizhe introduced that the three major demands of the whole year have made positive contributions to economic growth. In 2021, final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net exports of goods and services will drive economic growth by 5.3, 1.1 and 1.7 percentage points respectively, and their contribution rates to economic growth will be 65.4%, 13.7% and 20.9% respectively.

The advantages of super large-scale market appear, and the expansion of domestic demand drives imports; The advantages of sound industrial system and stable production capacity have been brought into play, and foreign demand has been expanded to promote exports. In 2021, the total import and export volume of China's goods hit a new record, in which the import and export increased by 21.5% and 21.2% respectively over the previous year.

Policy intensive consumer investment is optimistic

In the face of complex domestic and international situations and various risks and challenges, the national economy has continued to recover, but we should also see that the domestic economy is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation.

Under pressure, a series of steady growth policies were launched intensively. The executive meeting of the State Council held recently identified three measures to expand effective investment. All localities regard infrastructure construction as an important starting point for steady growth, and focus on starting a large number of major projects. The notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future issued by the national development and Reform Commission proposed 10 consumption promotion measures, such as creating an upgraded version of online festival consumption, expanding residents' ice and snow consumption, and promoting the healthy development of housing consumption. The central bank announced yesterday that the bid winning interest rates of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repurchase operation decreased by 10 basis points.

In terms of investment, policies such as moderately advanced infrastructure investment are making efforts. Ning Jizhe said that with the acceleration of the pace of issuing special bonds of local governments since the second half of 2021 and the accelerated release of investment in the central budget, 102 key projects determined in the 14th five year plan have been launched one after another, and the 'two new and one heavy' projects have been constructed in an orderly manner. The increase of policy support such as fiscal and monetary investment is conducive to the steady recovery of fixed asset investment. Since the beginning of 2022, a number of key projects have been started according to the plan, and the investment growth prospect is promising.

In terms of consumption, consumption will continue to recover. Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that from the perspective of the relative changes in the growth rate of residents' disposable income and consumer expenditure, the growth rate of residents' overall income continued to be higher than that of consumption, and their consumption ability was still strong. As the consumption scenario continues to repair, it is expected that the boost of employment and income to consumption will be released slowly, and the consumption growth rate will further pick up, and the monthly growth rate may be close to the pre epidemic level. Xie Yunliang, chief Macro Analyst of Cinda securities, believes that the overall consumption growth rate is expected to be close to the pre epidemic level in 2022.

Positive factors still exist and the economy is expected to make progress while maintaining stability

'This year is a year for China's economy to gradually return to normal operation, but the current external environment is more complex and severe, with uncertainty and pressure on domestic development.' Ning Jizhe said that despite these risks and challenges, generally speaking, the trend of China's sustained economic recovery and development has not changed, the factors that keep the economy running within a reasonable range and the conditions supporting high-quality development have not changed. Throughout the year, the economy is expected to make progress while maintaining stability.

International organizations are also optimistic about China's economic development potential and growth resilience. According to a report released by the World Bank recently, China's GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.1% in 2022, ranking among the top among the world's major economies.

Dongfang Jincheng report believes that the domestic epidemic will continue to be effectively controlled in 2022, and the economic operation will further return to normalization.

Insiders said that from the perspective of meso high-frequency data since January, the economy is expected to achieve 'stable opening' in the first quarter, and the annual economic growth is expected to draw a beautiful 'smile curve'.


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