Xinhua news agency, Beijing, December 21, entitled 'have the confidence, conditions, and ability to keep the economy running within a reasonable range' -- an interview with Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics
The central economic work conference requires that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. How to stabilize expectations? What policies will be introduced conducive to economic stability? How to organically combine cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies? How to promote the work next year around the five major theoretical and practical issues?
The reporter interviewed Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of statistics.
Strive to stabilize expectations under triple pressure
Q: the central economic work conference pointed out that China's economic development faces triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. How to stabilize expectations?
International agencies predict that China's economy will grow by about 8% this year.
At the same time, it should be recognized that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. From the perspective of demand, residents' consumption is continuously disturbed by local sporadic epidemic, and the stable growth of investment is restricted by some factors. From the perspective of supply, there are still some blocking points in the industrial chain supply chain, the pressure of rising comprehensive costs of enterprises still exists, and the production and operation of downstream small and medium-sized enterprises are facing difficulties. From the perspective of expectation, there are great variables in the trend of global epidemic, uncertainty in economic operation, and certain fluctuations in market expectation and enterprise confidence.
These pressures are the result of the joint action of many factors. There are the superimposed effects of the spread of the global epidemic and the uneven recovery of the world economy, the proliferation of liquidity in developed economies and the sharp rise in commodity prices, the frequent occurrence of domestic epidemics, the impact and disturbance of flood disasters in some areas, the highlighting of some long-standing deep-seated contradictions and the weakening of economic growth momentum, as well as the constraints of policy meeting with contraction effect. The importance of stabilizing expectations has become more prominent.
First, it is expected to stabilize the economy and industry. We must adopt effective policies and measures to revitalize investment and industry and effectively stabilize the macro-economic market. On the one hand, actively expand effective investment. We will solidly promote the construction of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. Give better play to the guiding role of government investment, and encourage and guide private capital to participate in the construction of municipal, transportation, logistics and other short board projects. On the other hand, promote the operation of industrial economy to cheer up. We will make greater efforts to support the development of the real economy, increase accurate support for enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and consolidate the foundation of economic development.
Second, to stabilize expectations, we should focus on key points and solve difficult problems. First, focus on ensuring supply and price stability. In view of various supply shocks, special attention should be paid to the connection between the production, supply and marketing of grain, oil, meat, eggs, vegetables and other daily necessities, and the regulation of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation, so as to ensure the stable supply of the market and the basic stability of prices. Second, strive to expand domestic demand. Fill the gaps in the infrastructure network and lay out new infrastructure. Promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, carry out green smart appliances to the countryside, and promote the quality and capacity expansion of life service industries such as medical and health care, elderly care and education, culture, tourism and sports. Third, focus on promoting enterprise benefit and relief. We will implement the tax reduction and fee reduction policies that have been introduced, accelerate the implementation of the new tax reduction and fee reduction policies, and increase financial support.
Third, we should make up for weaknesses and ensure safety. In terms of food security, we implemented the strictest farmland protection system and deeply implemented the action to revitalize the seed industry. In terms of energy security, we will strengthen the supply guarantee of coal, electricity and natural gas, actively promote the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi, desert areas and the sea, and continue to play the role of coal and coal power in peak shaving and bottom-up supply guarantee. In terms of industrial chain and supply chain stability, focus on solving the shortage of chips such as automobiles, strengthen the supervision of domestic bulk commodity market, and accelerate the construction of modern international logistics supply chain system.
Fourth, to stabilize expectations, we should enhance our strengths and increase confidence. Fully grasp the period of important strategic opportunities for development and give full play to comparative advantages. China has taken the lead in coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in the world. It has a complete industrial system, improved supporting capacity, abundant human resources and convenient software and hardware infrastructure network. It has the advantage of a super large-scale market composed of more than 1.4 billion people and the world's largest and fastest-growing middle-income group. It has the institutional advantage of concentrating on major, difficult and urgent matters, It has rich regulation experience and large policy space. We have the confidence, conditions and ability to maintain economic operation within a reasonable range and promote steady and long-term economic and social development.
Introduce policies conducive to economic stability
Q: the central economic work conference requires that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. All parties should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. How to grasp and implement?
A: the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability is not only an important principle for governing the country, but also a methodology for doing a good job in economic work. 'Making progress while maintaining stability' means to strive to stabilize the overall economic market and make new progress in promoting high-quality development. In the specific work, we should adhere to the principle of standing first and then breaking down, work steadily and steadily, grasp the time efficiency of adjusting policies and promoting reform, and realize the benign interaction and dynamic balance of stability and progress.
First, actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability.
In terms of macro policies, we will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, make good use of investment and consumption policy tools, and implement the upcoming strategic outline for expanding domestic demand.
In terms of reform and opening-up policies, we will accelerate the construction of a national unified market, promote the construction of a high-standard market system, and pay close attention to the pilot comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors. We will continue to deepen the reform of mixed ownership of state-owned enterprises, optimize the development environment of the private economy, and create a development ecology of symbiosis and common prosperity between large enterprises and small, medium and micro enterprises. We will implement the negative list of foreign investment access that will be further reduced this year, and continue to revise the catalogue of industries that encourage foreign investment.
In terms of structural policies, focusing on unblocking the domestic cycle, we will continue to deepen the supply side structural reform and enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.
In terms of regional policies, we will strengthen the work of major regional strategies and regional coordinated development strategies. We will implement the national new urbanization plan.
Second, strengthen policy implementation. Ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure and optimize the expenditure structure. We will increase support for special bonds issued by local governments. Appropriately increase the investment in the central budget, and accurately support the construction of key core technologies, 'two new and one heavy' and other projects. We will step up efforts to benefit enterprises and relieve them.
Third, the policy force should be appropriately advanced. Strengthening infrastructure ahead; Release funds ahead; Arrange the project ahead to form the physical workload as soon as possible.
Fourth, pay close attention to the implementation of policies and achieve results. We will further improve the macro policy transmission mechanism and open up the 'last mile' so that the policy effect can be transmitted faster and better to the grass-roots level, enterprises, projects and employment.
Do a good job in the organic combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies
Q: in the face of a complex environment, how can we improve the foresight and pertinence of macro-control and deal with cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation as a whole?
A: the 'cross' of cross cycle regulation is reflected in the cross annual arrangement of policies, and the 'inverse' of counter cycle regulation is reflected in the reaction to economic cycle fluctuations. To organically combine cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation and control policies, we should base ourselves on this year and focus on next year, handle the relationship between current and long-term, total amount and structure, speed and efficiency, put steady growth in a more prominent position, and continue to promote high-quality development. Focus on grasping the 'Three Combinations'.
First, we should combine coping with the downward pressure on the economy with preventing economic ups and downs. To cope with the increasing downward pressure on the economy is to alleviate the triple pressure, reverse the economic cycle and take targeted policies and measures. To prevent economic ups and downs, we mainly consider that in the first quarter of last year, the economy fell by 6.8% and fell by a 'pit'. In the first quarter of this year, the economy grew by 18.3% and went up a 'slope'. Next year, we will have a 'ridge' to fill the valley and cut the peak and overcome difficulties. The organic combination of cross cycle and counter cycle regulation is conducive to ironing out economic fluctuations, avoiding ups and downs, maintaining economic operation within a reasonable range and improving the effectiveness of macro-control.
Second, combine the policies and measures of this year and next. The new local government special bonds issued in the fourth quarter of this year are mainly used at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, forming a '1 + 1 > 2' superposition effect with the special bonds issued next year; Policies such as invigorating industrial economic operation, reducing taxes and fees, and financial support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises will play a role from the end of this year to next year, fully reflecting the requirements of cross cycle regulation. Facing the downward pressure of the economy, this year we should make preparations for next year's economic work in advance, and promote the early introduction, implementation and effectiveness of policies conducive to economic stability; Next year, we should continue to implement the policies and measures introduced earlier this year, and strive to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter, the first half of the year and even the whole year.
Third, combine fiscal and monetary policies with other policies. We will effectively strengthen overall policy coordination, strengthen policy pre research reserves, and grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of policy implementation. We will strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and monetary policies, and promote the systematic integration of fiscal, monetary and employment policies and industrial, investment, consumption, social, environmental protection and regional policies. Do a good job in the impact assessment of economic development before the introduction of policies, timely introduce policies conducive to stabilizing economic operation and reform measures conducive to activating and increasing power, and carefully introduce policies with contraction effect.
Correctly understand and grasp five major theoretical and practical problems
Q: the central economic work conference proposed to correctly understand and grasp five major theoretical and practical issues. What will be the focus of work in 2022?
A: we should correctly understand, publicize, explain and promote the solution of the five major theoretical and practical problems. From the perspective of development and reform, we will focus on the following work.
In terms of common prosperity, we strengthened the top-level design, studied and formulated the action platform for promoting common prosperity, and focused on increasing employment and income, public services, local demonstration and other work. Promote stable industry and increase income, and build income growth on the basis of fuller and higher quality employment; Improve public services and continuously promote the standardization and equalization of basic public services; Accelerate the implementation of policies and measures to support Zhejiang's high-quality development and construction of a demonstration area of common prosperity.
In terms of regulating capital development, in view of the sharp rise in the prices of some bulk commodities and necessities for people's livelihood, we should implement the price law and other laws and regulations to prevent sharp rises and falls in prices; We will work together to do a good job in anti-monopoly, anti unfair competition, anti profiteering, preventing short-term hot money speculation, anti real to virtual capital, anti head platform enterprise infringement, etc. Improve the market environment of fair competition and adhere to the 'two unwavering'.
In terms of ensuring the supply of primary products, the focus is to do a good job in the security and stability of grain, energy and important raw materials. We will strive to enhance the reserve and adjustment capacity of key categories of materials, optimize the coordinated guarantee of production capacity and regional layout, and form a guarantee force with orderly connection and echelon support with physical reserves.
In terms of preventing and resolving major risks, strengthen risk early warning, prevention and control mechanism and capacity-building. We will strengthen the prevention of debt risks of investment projects, continue to promote the prevention and resolution of local hidden debt risks, strengthen the prevention of corporate bond default risks, and make work plans to deal with complex situations in advance. We will effectively prevent downside risks in economic operation, avoid risk factors 'coming out of the water' and solve risk problems in development.
In terms of peak carbon neutralization, we will implement the opinions and plans on peak carbon neutralization issued by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. Create conditions to realize the transformation from 'double control' of energy consumption to 'double control' of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible.